Interamerican Institute for Democracy 05/04/2017
Must confess — I was utterly surprised by election results in Ecuador.
To my freedom-infused soul, economic conditions and civil rights restraints exercised by the Correa Administration would inexorably lead the government candidate Lenin Moreno to defeat. I, of course, was as wrong as most members of Latin American elites are when it comes to reading their people’s minds.
Yes, the contender Mr Guillermo Lasso has demanded a recount and argues he can prove that he was the victim of fraud.
But the Ecuadorian government doesn’t seem to be accepting a recount nor do the people of Ecuador seem ready to fight for the recount.
Given that current administration is part and parcel of the 21st century Latin American Socialist block, it truly seems unlikely to engage in a recount lest it is 100% sure that Mr. Moreno truly won the election.
To be sure, in polarized situations incumbents can keep power whenever the distance vis-à-vis the contender is less than 10%, because in these circumstances electoral “make-up” is a possibility. When the cheat surpasses 10%, cover-up is as difficult as trying to hide the length of Cyrano de Bergerac’s nose with foundation.
Thus, for the recount to materialize one of two conditions need to be met. People furiously demand this measure on the streets. Or a powerful enough international institution casts its weight in favor of the recount. Neither seem to be about to occur any time soon. Some people protested Sunday April 2nd but have since gone invisible.
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